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Thinking, Fast and Slow
This course does not inventory the biases. It takes the book apart as an argument, starting from one claim — that judgement departs systematically under identifiable conditions — and asks of each step whether it is chosen, true by definition, or refutable by data; which experiments survived later replication and which did not; and where 'System 1 / System 2' stops explaining and starts labelling. The last chapter audits the first six, including the places where the conclusion was right and the reasoning was not.
结构交底
本课交付的结构
It carries to medical diagnosis, hiring, sentencing and the evaluation of automated systems; it fails where feedback is fast, the task repeats, and the judge sees the error immediately.
核心承诺
01Substitution Faced with a hard question, people answer a nearby easier one, without noticing.
02The departure has a direction It is not random noise: the direction follows from which question was substituted, so it can be bet on in advance.
03The reference point decides How an outcome is valued depends on a reference point, and the reference point can be set by wording.
掌握路径
L1Restate and bound
学完能
- State the three steps of the substitution mechanism
- Name the feedback conditions under which it fails
L2Grade the evidence
学完能
- Tell whether a claim rests on an effect size or on a story
- Point to where the book presents a definition as a finding
概念地图
Regression
After an extreme comes the average; arithmetic, not a force.
第 4 章
章节
0 / 7 章已读
01
Substitution: how a question gets swapped for another
The load-bearing mechanism, and the standing of the 'two systems' phrase.
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02
Coherence before completeness
What you see is all there is, and the confidence it produces.
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03
Anchoring and availability: two mechanisms tested repeatedly
Effect sizes, replication records, and which claims to discount.
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04
Regression to the mean: arithmetic mistaken for psychology
The cleanest passage in the book, and the easiest to misread.
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05
Prospect theory: reference points and loss aversion
The one place the book gives a formal model.
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06
Framing, mental accounting and the two selves
From judgement to evaluation: who is scoring the episode.
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07
Reverse audit: checking the evidence of chapters 1–6
The audit covers chapters 1 to 6, including right conclusions reached wrongly.
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